Proceedings of the Particle Physics and Early Universe Conference (PPEUC).
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2 Problems with the likelihood method 

Two important questions we would like to settle about likelihood analysis are (a) is the method optimal in the sense that we get the minimum variance (smallest error bars) for a given amount of data? and (b) is the method efficient -- can we realistically find the best-fitting parameters? As an example of this last point, if we have data points (pixels, harmonic coefficients, etc), and parameters to estimate with a sampling rate of , we find that the calculation time scales as

where the first term is just the total number of points at which we need to calculate the likelihood, and the second term is the time that it takes to calculate the inverse of and its determinant. Of course, in practice one would not find the maximum likelihood solution this way, but it serves to illustrate the point. Note that the covariance matrix depends on the parameters and therefore must be evaluated locally in parameter space. For MAP or Planck we have , and , resulting in , even for nanosecond technology. But before we give up in dismay, it is worth looking a bit further at the theory of parameter estimation.


PPEUC Proceedings
Fri Jun 20 15:22:24 BST 1997